In the article, the author considers the problems of economic growth acceleration in the conditions of external environment tightening. Digital transformation sets the vector of structural changes in the Russian and world economy. Currently, the most and least likely elements of digital transformation at the level of the real sector have been identified. Against the background of the ongoing spread of a number of important elements of the digital economy, well-defined threats to cybersecurity are identified and natural intelligence is degraded. It is expected that the structure of employment will undergo major changes. Technological changes provoke fundamental changes in the society, — its appearance in the future can not only be presented in the light of techno-optimism. Scenarios that reanimate very dark futuristic prophecies in the past can become a modern reality. The unfolding digitalization assumes the solution of fundamental issues of development management. Successful co-evolution of social, technical and natural systems requires going beyond the entrenched economic paradigm.

The article is devoted to the mechanisms of economic growth. It examines the role and place of strategic planning in the economic policy of theRussian Federation. It also shows the important role of increasing demand and investment — the main engines of economic growth. The purpose of the article is a presentation of the proposal of priority steps for the launch of the stable development of the Russian economy. The article states that a favourable macroeconomic situation in the country is a necessary but not sufficient condition for economic growth, and shows the main factors that limit it. To achieve these goals, the authorities need to provide an active economic policy based on strategic planning. The adopted government program of digitalization can accelerate the growth of the economy, but will not automatically improve its structure. It is concluded that it is necessary to increase the rate of accumulation (investment) and ensure productivity growth. This requires modernization of production, improvement of labour organization, development of education and career guidance, increase of working life, as well as replication of successful experience. To solve the main task of economic development, it is proposed to introduce infrastructure bonds and project financing more actively, to support exports and to use other incentives. A successful transition to projectbased public administration is also needed.

The article formulates a methodological principle for the analysis of the scale of economic damage caused to the Russian economy by international sanctions imposed in 2014. The proposed principle of qualitative transformation allows to fix the principal change in the situation, if the changes in economic indicators reach multiple (more than 2 times) differences. On the example of foreign trade, including with countries that supported international sanctions, it is shown that theRussiafor several years was in a completely different economic dimension. A similar situation occurred in the monetary sphere (on current exchange rate), domestic price formation (price of gasoline), attraction of direct investments. In addition, there are examples when the actions of foreign market participants involved in the sanctions war, blocked many positive Russian initiatives-integration into world science, the output of high-tech equipment to foreign markets, etc. It is shown that the gradual weakening of the country by means of international sanctions led, if not to the complete, then partial collapse of the model of the social state, which put a heavy burden on the population of the country. It is proved that in such conditions it is necessary to revise the economic policy in the direction of strengthening its creative beginning.

The article presents the results of the author’s research of the impact of a wide range of restrictions and prohibitions applied to theRussian Federation, used by a number of countries for their geopolitical purposes and as a means of competition. The object of study was the impact of anti-Russian sanctions on the development of Oil & Gas industry and defence industry complex ofRussiain 2014–2016. The purpose of the analysis was to assess the impact of sanctions on the volume of oil and gas production, the dynamics of foreign earnings from the export of oil and gas, and of foreign earnings from the sale abroad of military and civilian products of the Russian defence industry complex (DIC). As the research method, the author used the economic analysis of the time series of statistical data presented in open statistics and literature. The author showed that some countries use the anti-Russian sanctions as a means of political, financial, economic, scientific, and technological struggle with the leadership ofRussiaand Russian economic entities. It is noteworthy that their introduction in 2014 coincided with the readiness of theUSto export gas and oil, which required a niche in the international energy market. The imposed sanctions have affected the volume of oil production inRussia, which was one of the factors of reduction of foreign earnings from the country’s oil and gas exports. However, the Russian defence industry complex has relatively well experienced the negative impact of sanctions and other non-market instruments of competition

The article analyzes the BRICS countries’ participation in the management reform of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group as an institutional framework of the Jamaica Monetary System (Jamaica Plan 1976). As the novelty of the study, the author considers this problem in the context of the transition from interstate regulation to global financial and economic regulation. The definition proposed by the author (broader than the term “global financial regulation”) is due to a new assessment of the financial risks. The article substantiates the participation of the BRICS countries (as well as all members of the IMF and the World Bank) in the reform and the interest in the relative stabilization of the world economy and Finance. The author grounded the assessment of the group of 20 (G20) as the initiator of this reform in the context of the global crisis and the gradual weakening of the control of the implementation of the recommendations of the summits. Based on the position of the G20 on an integrated analysis of the role of the Bretton Woods institutions in the Jamaica Plan 1976, the author gave a comparative description of the relationship of their functions and role in the functioning of the two global currency systems over 70 years. The author made conclusions about the effectiveness of the BRICS countries’ participation in the IMF and the World Bank Group governance reform regarding the increase of their share in quotas and votes, and their representation in the form of appointment of their own Executive Director to the IMF Executive Board. It has been revealed the negative impact of the transformation of the role of these institutions in the global financial and economic regulators in connection with the introduction of integrated currency supervision over the preparation and use of the sovereign currency reserves of the countries. Summing up, the author formulated proposals for further strengthening the positions of the BRICS countries in the management of the IMF and the World Bank on the basis of improving the new formula for calculating quotas introduced in 2008.

The credit cycle is one of the most important elements of the business cycle. Credit expansion after the crisis is one of the key ways of economic recovery. The tightening of financial regulation in response to the crisis of 2007–2008 largely slowed down the credit expansion phase and was reflected in an abnormally prolonged phase of credit contraction for the non-financial private sector. The normal course of the credit cycle was disrupted by the increased demands of Basel III and the reform of theUSAfinancial system. The credit cycle after the crisis of 2007–2008 differs from previous crises: the recovery of credit activity was slower; the volume of credit to the non-financial private sector has not recovered even now. The article presents a comparative analysis of the behaviour of credit after crises from the point of view of the duration of recovery. In this article, the author presents the results of the research of the nature of the incident called “the credit paralysis” based on Minsky’s hypothesis of financial instability and Crotty’s theory of the endogenous formation of credit standards. It is assumed that bank credit standards are set in accordance with the level of macroeconomic variables — the level of GDP, interest rates, the volume of loans taken. Using the vector autoregressive model, the author analyzed the change in credit activity in response to changes in credit standards, as well as the process of forming credit standards depending on macroeconomic indicators. Therefore, the author concluded that the excessive increase in credit standards due to the introduction of Basel III requirements in response to the crisis that violated the normal course of the credit cycle. Based on the author’s econometric study, the author built a stylized model of theUSAcredit cycle, taking into account the influence of specific factors of the crisis of 2007–2008: pre-crisis financial innovation and post-crisis tightening of financial regulation.

The use of new tools for economic data analysis in the last decade has led to significant improvements in forecasting. This is due to the relevance of the question, and the development of technologies that allow implementation of more complex models without resorting to the use of significant computing power. The constant volatility of the world indices forces all financial market players to improve risk management models and, at the same time, to revise the policy of capital investment. More stringent liquidity and transparency standards in relation to the financial sector also encourage participants to experiment with protective mechanisms and to create predictive algorithms that can not only reduce the losses from the volatility of financial instruments but also benefit from short-term investment manipulations. The article discusses the possibility of improving the efficiency of calculations in predicting the volatility by the models of tree ensembles using various methods of data analysis. As the key points of efficiency growth, the author studied the possibility of aggregation of financial time series data using several methods of calculation and prediction of variance: Standard, EWMA, ARCH, GARCH, and also analyzed the possibility of simplifying the calculations while reducing the correlation between the series. The author demonstrated the application of calculation methods on the basis of an array of historical price data (Open, High, Low, Close) and volume indicators (Volumes) of futures trading on the RTS index with a five-minute time interval and an annual set of historical data. The proposed method allows to reduce the cost of computing power and time for data processing in the analysis of short-term positions in the financial markets and to identify risks with a certain level of confidence probability.

In the article, authors considered the relationship between the priorities of the regional policy of theRussian Federation, the applied instruments, and the corresponding financial flows. The study was conducted on the basis of the analysis of normative legal acts of the Russian Federation in the field of regional policy, budget policy and strategic planning, as well as strategic and program documents of the Federal level. The authors paid special attention to the instruments of stimulation of regional economic development. The authors came to the conclusion that the successful implementation of regional policy is hampered by the problems associated with the incompleteness and inconsistency of the system of strategic planning documents, the lack of interdepartmental coordination, the redundancy of the number of incentive mechanisms, the complexity of managing financial flows from various sources, and the gaps in information support. The findings of the study were tested on the example of the Primorsky Krai. According to the analysis, the authors have formulated recommendations for public authorities aimed at improving the effectiveness of incentive mechanisms of state regional policy.

The euphoria of the effectiveness of the methodology of system modelling in the study of nature and synthesis of artificial systems has prompted the scientific community to its large-scale use in the sciences, the subject of which is the human community: economics, sociology, political science, history, philosophy, etc. However, many years of work in this field have not yet led to significant success. It turned out that the systems in which the key role belongs to man — socio-cultural, are fundamentally different from natural and artificial systems, and the methods of their research are not always applicable to their analysis. We need a specific methodology for modelling socio-cultural systems, and therefore the theoretical justification of its applicability. In this article, the author provides an original classification of systemic formations, which allows to clearly divide the whole set of systems into non-intersecting subsets (classes) and to define the limits of the efficacy of the existing arsenal of system modelling. In order to expand it and extend it to the class of socio-cultural systems, the author justified the original approach to the description of system dynamics and proposed an appropriate modelling language. The author proved the analogy in the development of socio-cultural and living systems and substantiated the proposition of the expediency of initiating a new scientific stream in the study of human community activity — genetics of socio-cultural systems.

The main drawback of the existing methods of identification of banking crises is their dependence on subjective expert judgments, in connection with which, databases on crises have differences in the date and duration of crisis episodes. However, there is a more objective way to do it — the use of the money market pressure index (MPI), based on the indicators provided by the statistical authorities. In his work, the author explored the von Hagen & Ho (2007) index method and Laeven & Valencia (2012) method, which includes evaluative judgment. The aim of our work was, on the example of the banking sector ofRussiafor 1998–2016, the identification of the most accurate and sensitive methodology for assessment of banking crises. This study was carried out in stages. First, it was supplemented Laeven &Valenciathe database on the crises inRussiafrom 2011 to 2016. Second, it was built the money market pressure index (MPI) for the Russian banking sector for the period 1998–2016. At the final stage, the author compared the crisis episodes, identified using these two methods, which simultaneously identify the crises of 1998 and 2009. However, the crisis of 2014–2016 was identified only by the Laeven & Valencia criteria. This discrepancy can be explained by the shortcomings of the index methodology, which does not take into account hidden guarantees and direct support from the state. Moreover, the hypothesis that the banking crisis took place in 2014–2016 was confirmed by the Demirgüç-Kunt & Detragiache criteria (2005), as well as the financial stress index proposed by ACRA (ACRA FSI RU). Thus, it can be concluded that it is most acceptable to use the Laeven & Valencia methods when identifying banking crises.

The need to ensure the transition of Russia to the six technological mode, of creation of the adequate conditions for this and effective management of such a transition, make the authors turn to the analysis of modern mechanisms used for this purpose, including the state stimulation of the manufacturing industry, which has a leading role in the consolidation of such a transition. The difficulties faced by our country in this task make us turn to the study of the experience of foreign countries that have succeeded in this transition. These includeGermany,Japanand theUnited States, which have long been the steady leaders in the development and use of advanced technologies and in the development of the manufacturing industry as well. The subject of our study was the assessment of the mechanisms of state incentives for manufacturing industry used in countries with developed market economies, through the prism of the objectives and approaches to the functional purpose of the sector. The aim of the study was a determination of the limits of effective use of the mechanisms of state stimulation of the manufacturing industry inGermany,Japanand theUnited States. The methodological basis of the study was: general scientific methods of cognition and research, including system and logical methods, analysis, synthesis, analogy; branch scientific methods, such as economic comparative studies, etc. The analysis of the use of mechanisms of state stimulation of the manufacturing industry in Germany, Japan and the United States shows that the effective use of well-established and well-known in the world mechanisms of state stimulation of manufacturing industry requires in each case a separate integrated and balanced approach to their application with a clearly defined target focus of such use, as well as taking into account the specifics of the entities to which they are addressed, and the multilevel environment in which they operate.

Precarious employment is becoming more and more widespread in the world and inRussia. It is the destruction of the traditional standard model of employment, labour and social rights of workers to secure and sustainable employment. This is one of the problematic areas of modern social relations, exacerbated by the industrial revolution 4.0, globalization of global relations in all areas and their use in the interests of national and world capital. In the article, the author characterizes the essence of precarious employment and presents the results of a sociological study of precarious employment in a representative group. It allowed expanding the sociological tools of its study and the use of sociological indicators to identify groups of workers in relation to precarious employment. The author also studied the parameters of the specified representative group, clarified the indicators of precarious employment and their quantitative values that identify certain aspects. As a result, the author identified four profiles of contemporary employment inRussia, characterized by increasing signs of precarious employment and gave their comparative characteristics. Further, the author described the differences in socio-demographic, socio-labour and economic characteristics of workers belonging to different profiles of employment. On this basis, the author justified the need to transform labour, civil and other legislation, which would allow more fully using the advantages of standard and flexible employment for employees of various segments of the Russian labour market, ensuring, at the same time, compliance with their labour and social rights.

In the previous work, G.M. Sternik and S.G. Sternik justified the options for the method of assessing the average current annual return on investment in residential real estate development, depending on the nature and content of the initial data on the costs contained in the sources of information (construction costs or total investment costs). Based on the analysis of the composition of the elements of development costs used in various data sources, we corrected the coefficients that allowed us to move from the assessment of the current annual return on investment in development in relation to the cost (full estimated cost) of construction to the assessment of the current annual return on investment in relation to the total investment costs. This calculation method was tested on the example of the housing market inMoscow. As a result, we concluded it is possible its use for investment management in the housing market. In this article, based on G.M. Sternik and S.G. Sternik’s methodology for assessing the return on investment into the development, and taking also into account the increase of information openness of the real estate market, we improved the calculation formulas, using new sources of the initial data, and recalculated the average market return on investment into the development of residential real estate in the Moscow region according to the data available for 2014–2017. We concluded that, since 2015, the average market return on investment takes negative values, i.e. the volume of investment in construction exceeds the revenue from sales in the primary market. However, in the second half of 2017, the indicator has increased to positive values, which was due to a greater extent of the decrease in the volume of residential construction in the region. The data obtained by us, together with the improved method of calculations, allow predicting with high reliability the potential of the development of the regional markets of primary housing for the purpose of investment and state planning of housing construction programs.