History of Economic Crises: Economic-Mathematical Verification of the Main Conclusions

Abstract

The market economy is subject to its own special laws. Its spontaneous character is revealed during crises — the unknown phenomena of world economic life, the nature of which has not yet received a generally recognized explanation in economic science. This article is an attempt to comprehend the causes and consequences of economic crises, to classify them by the nature of the forming processes, as well as to give an economic and mathematical justification of the scientific conclusions of the proposed research. The conclusions presented in the article are based on the results of processing a wide array of unique statistical data for more than 200 years of development of the world economy. A significant part of the work is devoted to verification of the findings of the study through economic and mathematical modeling using the software platform “Infoanalytic”, the intellectual basis of which is the methodology of the regularizing Bayesian approach (modification of the “traditional” Bayesian approach) and Bayesian intelligent measurements designed to generate stable estimates under conditions of significant uncertainty as a priori, and the actual information coming in the current mode as well as. The article highlights the results of a retrospective analysis of the development of the world economy since the industrial revolution of the XVIII century. The revealed regularities allow forming the hypothesis explaining the causes of differences in the realization of economic phenomena at all stages of the long-term cyclic process.