THE PRICE OF OIL. REACHING FOR THE BOTTOM
Abstract
The article is devoted to the dynamics assessment of oil prices since mid-2014 and the analysis of its determinants. It has been established that the cause of the current oil crisis was the continuing overproduction of oil, due to near-zero growth of the world economy and the market entry of a large numberof non-conventional hydrocarbon reserves, production of which has become profitable thanks to the ultra-high oil prices in 2006-2013. Taken together, this has led to a change in the landscape of the oil market and revealed the reluctance of member countries of OPEC to influence the price levels by reducing the supplyof oil for the fear of losing their market share. Prepared is the medium term forecast of oil prices dynamics according to the analysis of factors that determine it.
References
1. Bloomberg: statistics of oil price and USD exchange rate for 2007–2015.
2. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014.
3. Dobashina I. V., Mirkin Ya. M. Anatomiya of prices of oil as on a fi nancial asset [Anatomija cen na neft’ kak na finansovyj aktiv]. Banking services. 2014, no. 10, рр. 9–14.
4. Bushuyev V. V., Hemp fi eld A. A., Mirkin Ya. M., etc. Prices of oil: analysis, tendencies, forecast [Ceny na neft’: analiz, tendencii, prognoz]. Moscow, Energiya, 2013.
5. Bobyliov YU. N., Prikhodko S. V., Drobyshevsky S. M., Tagore S. V. Factors of pricing for oil [Faktory formirovanija cen na neft’]. Moscow, Institut ekonomiki perekhodnogo perioda, 2006.
6. Kondratov D. What factors influence dynamics of the oil market? [Kakie faktory vozdejstvujut na dinamiku neftjanogo rynka?]. Society and economy, 2013, no. 6, pp. 64–83.
7. Molachiyev A. World prices for oil: without stability [Mirovye ceny na neft’: bez stabil’nosti]. Oil and gas vertical, 2011, no. 15–16.
8. Logins E. L., Loginov V. E. Financial aspects of transformation of the world markets of oil: new conditions of development of economy [Finansovye aspekty transformacii mirovyh rynkov nefti: novye uslovija razvitija jekonomiki]. Finance and credit, 2015, no. 17, рр. 2–10.
9. Isain N. V. World prices for oil: monetary, macroeconomic and geopolitical aspects [Mirovye ceny na neft’: monetarnye, makrojekonomicheskie i geopoliticheskie aspekty]. Power policy, 2015, no. 5, pp. 94– 102.
10. Hemp fi eld A. A. Amerikanskaya slate revolution: consequences are irreversible [Amerikanskaja slancevaja revoljucija: posledstvija neobratimy]. EKO, 2014, no. 5, pp. 111–126.
11. Ponkratov V. V. Tax maneuver in oil branch of Russia [Nalogovyj manevr v neftjanoj otrasli Rossii]. Oil industry, 2014, no. 9.
Review
For citations:
Ponkratov V.V. THE PRICE OF OIL. REACHING FOR THE BOTTOM. The world of new economy. 2016;(1):32-37. (In Russ.)
Views:
532
Email this article 