Monitoring of Inflation in the New Geopolitical Reality

The article is devoted to the assessment of the inflation rate based on the aggregated inflation index, which characterizes the dynamics of business processes in the main sectors and spheres of the national economy in the conditions of a new geopolitical reality due to the coronavirus pandemic and sanctions wars in connection with Russia’s special military operation in the Donbas and Ukraine (SMO). The object of the study is the monitoring of inflation, acting as an up-todate leading socio-economic barometer formed through the integration of private inflation indicators. During periods of macroeconomic instability, private inflation indices ambiguously reflect the real situation about the ongoing production and inflationary processes in the national economy. As a result, the decisions made are based mainly on unilateral expert analysis, which reduces the effectiveness of the decisions made. The article proposes an approach based on the selection and integration of private inflation indicators and the construction of an aggregated index using statistical methods. This makes it possible to more accurately and quickly calculate the impact of prices and tariffs on the development of key economic complexes, which determines the change in income levels and, accordingly, the quality of life of the population. The proposed methodology opens up significant prospects for monitoring inflation in comparison with the consumer price index used in Russian practice. The result of the work were the conclusions of the authors obtained by analyzing the calculations of the dynamic series of aggregated and partial inflation indices. It is determined that it is advisable to use the aggregated inflation index when indexing pensions, justifying the subsistence minimum and other macro indicators characterizing the level of economic growth and social progress. The aggregated inflation index is proposed to be considered as a target macro indicator of strategic development.

1. Bryskina E. O. Analysis and evaluation of inflation processes in Russia. Mezhdunarodnyi nauchnoissledovatel’skii zhurnal = International Research Journal. 2020;(4–2):6–10. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.23670/IRJ.2020.94.4.023

2. Zhang C. The effect of globalization on inflation in new emerging markets. Emerging Markets Finance & Trade. 2015;51(5):1021–1033. DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2015.1039894

3. Zelenkova A. I. Imported and exported inflation in the global economy. Rossiiskoe predprinimatel’stvo = Russian Journal of Entrepreneurship. 2011;(7–1):4–9. (In Russ.).

4. Akhmedova M. M. Inflation mechanism in the context of the main theories of international trade. Vestnik Tadzhikskogo natsional’nogo universiteta. Seriya sotsial’no-ekonomicheskikh i obshchestvennykh nauk = Bulletin of the Tajik National University. Series of Economic and Social Sciences. 2018;(5):164–168. (In Russ.).

5. Korhonen I., Wachtel P. A note on exchange rate pass-through in CIS countries. Research in International Business and Finance. 2006;20(2):215–226. DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2005.09.006

6. Vasilega V. Inflation in Belarus: Reasons and terms of modern trends. Belorusskii ekonomicheskii zhurnal = Belarusian Economic Journal. 2015;(2):99–109. (In Russ.).

7. Dryuchevskii D. V. Inflation as an economic phenomenon from the standpoint of various schools and areas of economic science. Vestnik Chelyabinskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta = CSU Bulletin. 2012;(19):26–31. (In Russ.).

8. Akindinova N. V., Bessonov V. A., Pukhov S. G., Safonov I. N., Smirnov S. V. Inflation challenges of the pandemic period and sanctions. Lessons for the future. Voprosy ekonomiki. 2022;(5):5–25. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.32609/0042–8736–2022–5–5–25

9. Bessonov V. A. Problems of analysis of the Russian macroeconomic dynamics of the transition period. Moscow: Institute for the Economy in Transition (IET); 2005. 244 p. (In Russ.).

10. Dementiev A. V., Bessonov I. O. The indices of core inflation in Russia. Ekonomicheskii zhurnal Vysshei shkoly ekonomiki = The HSE Economic Journal. 2012;16(1):58–87. (In Russ.).

11. Shevchuk A. Yu. Harmonization of inflation measurement in the context of the integration of the EurAsEC countries. Vіsnik Marіupol’s’kogo derzhavnogo unіversitetu. Serіya: Ekonomіka = Bulletin of Mariupol State University. Series: Economics. 2012;(4):90–97. (In Russ.).

12. Milecová Z. Differences between harmonized indices of consumer prices and consumer price indices in selected countries. Economic Analysis. 2010;43(1–2):70–82. URL: https://www.library.ien.bg.ac.rs/index.php/ea/article/view/162/155

13. Ilyashenko V. V. Monetarist theory and inflation processes in Russia. Izvestiya Ural’skogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta = Journal of the Ural State University of Economics. 2014;(5):6–10. (In Russ.).

14. Akhmedova M. M. Anti-inflation policy and inflation mechanisms. Vestnik Bokhtarskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta imeni Nosira Khusrava. Seriya gumanitarnykh i ekonomicheskikh nauk = Bulletin of Bokhtar State University named after Nosiri Khusrav. Series of Humanitarian and Economic Sciences. 2021;(1–1):189–193. (In Russ.).

15. Anghelache C. The correlation between inflation and unemployment. Economica: Scientific and Didactic Journal. 2015;(1):115–123. URL: https://irek.ase.md/xmlui/bitstream/handle/123456789/173/ AnghelacheC–ManoleA_ec_2015_1.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

16. Kurgansky S. A. Inflation factors of in Russia in 2016. Izvestiya Baikal’skogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta = Bulletin of Baikal State University. 2016;26(2):229–241. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.17150/1993–3541.2016.26(2).229–241

17. Burtseva T. A., Frenkel A. A., Tikhomirov B. I., Surkov A. A. Reliable assessment of inflation as an objective necessity. Voprosy statistiki. 2021;28(6):18–29. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.34023/2313–6383–2021–28–6–18–29

18. Zubarevich N. V., Safronov S. G. The share of food in total consumption of the population of Russian regions as an indicator of the standard of living and consumption modernization. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriya 5. Geografiya = Moscow University Bulletin. Series 5: Geography. 2019;(2):61–68. (In Russ.).

19. Burtseva T. A., Frenkel A. A., Tikhomirov B. I., Surkov A. A. Measuring the inflation level in conditions of macroeconomic instability. Ekonomicheskaya nauka sovremennoi Rossii = Economics of Contemporary Russia. 2022;(4):63–76. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.33293/1609–1442–2022–4(99)-63–76

20. Raiskaya N. N., Sergienko Ya.V., Frenkel’ A. A. Study of inflationary processes in a transitional economy. Voprosy ekonomiki. 1997;(10):41–52. (In Russ.).