Modeling the Payment of Basic Income to Overcome Absolute Monetary Poverty, Support Unemployed Citizens and Families with Children

The article is devoted to the actual problem of the introduction of universal basic income (UBI) in Russia. Taking into account the real possibilities of the Russian economy, the issues of developing models of transitional forms of UBI, the so-called “basic income (BI)” are considered for target categories of citizens. The substantiation of the possibility and expediency of modeling the effects of BI payments according to the domestic simulation model of reproduction of Russia’s GDP P1–4–2 (2022–8) is carried out. The results of predictive calculations based on this model are presented. It is shown that the additional revenues of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation not only compensate for the initial costs of implementing the BI program, but also exceed the initial costs annually. The conclusion is made about the reality of the implementation of the “BI program” in our country. The state leadership is proposed to combine the current system of targeted social support with the introduction of BI payments to the most vulnerable households and categories of Russian citizens in order to improve the level and quality of life of the Russian population and increase consumer demand.

1. Bobkov V.N., Dolgushkin N.K., Odintsova Y.V. Universal basic income: Reflections on the possible impact on improving the living standards and quality of life and the sustainability of society. Uroven’ zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii = Living Standards and Quality of Life. 2019;(3):8–24. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.19181/1999–9836–2019–10069

2. Gontmakher E.S. Basic income: A prologue to the social policy of the 21st century? Ekonomicheskaya politika = Economic Policy. 2019;14(2):156–177. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.18288/1994–5124–2019–2–156–177

3. Kvashnin Yu.D. Basic income for the European countries: From theory to practice. Sovremennaya Evropa = Contemporary Europe. 2019;(3):171–181. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.15211/soveurope32019171181

4. Chernykh Ye.A. The current state of research of the content, forms, tools and mechanisms of introducing unconditional basic income. Uroven’ zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii = Living Standards and Quality of Life. 2020;16(2):61–75. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.19181/lsprr/2020.16.2.6

5. Gentilini U., Grosh M., Rigolini J., Yemtsov R., eds. Exploring universal basic income: A guide to navigatingconcepts, evidence, and practices. Washington, DC: The World Bank; 2020. 312 p. DOI: 10.1596/978–1–4648–1458–7

6. Standing G. Basic income: And how we can make it happen. London: Penguin Books; 2017. 400 p.

7. Van Parijs Ph., Vanderborght Y. Basic income: A radical proposal for a free society and a sane economy. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press; 2017. 400 p.

8. Gibson M., Hearty W., Craig P. Potential effects of universal basic income: A scoping review of evidence on impacts and study characteristics. The Lancet. 2018;392(S 36). DOI: 10.1016/S 0140–6736(18)32083–X

9. Straubhaar T. On the economics of a universal basic income. Intereconomics. 2017;52(2):74–80. DOI: 10.1007/s10272–017–0649–8

10. Nettle D., Johnson E., Johnson M., Saxe R. Why has the COVID-19 pandemic increased support for universal basic income? Humanities and Social Sciences Communications. 2021;8:79. DOI: 10.1057/s41599–021–00760–7

11. Zolotov A.V., Zolotov S.A. Realization of the UBI principles as an answer to the COVID-19 challenges. Uroven’ zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii = Living Standards and Quality of Life. 2020;16(4):96–104. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.19181/lsprr.2020.16.4.8

12. Martinelli L. Assessing the case for a universal basic income in the UK. Bath: IPR Institute for Policy Research; 2017. 95 p. URL: https://www.bath.ac.uk/publications/assessing–the–case–for–a–universal–basic–income–in–the–uk/attachments/basic_income_policy_brief.pdf

13. Kislitsyna O.A. Introduction of the Unconditional Basic Income System: What the Russians think about it? Who is for, who is against? Vestnik Instituta ekonomiki Rossiiskoi akademii nauk = Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2019;(3):32–47. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24411/2073–6487–2019–10030

14. Andreenkova A. Comparative analysis of popular attitudes toward the idea of basic income in Russia and in Europe. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya = Sociological Research. 2020;(1):18–30. (In Russ.). DOI:10.31857/S 013216250008321–6

15. Bobkov V.N., Odintsova Ye.V. Russian experts on universal basic income: Estimates for 2020. Uroven’ zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii = Living Standards and Quality of Life. 2021;17(1):67–86. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.19181/lsprr.2021.17.1.6

16. Bobkov V.N., Gulyugina A.A., Odintsova Ye.V. Methodological approaches to strengthening addressed social supporting indigent families with children. Uroven’ zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii = Living Standards and Quality of Life. 2019;(1):9–19. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24411/1999–9836–2019–10049

17. Friedman M. If money spoke. Transl. from Eng. Moscow: Delo; 2001. 160 p. (In Russ.)

18. Antipov V.I., Mitin N.A., Paschenko F.F. Modifed macroeconomic simulation model of Russia’s development. Preprinty IPM im. M.V. Keldysha = Keldysh Institute Preprints. 2018;(272):1–36. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.20948/prepr-2018–272

19. Antipov V. I. Stagnation of the Russian economy and the “Food cards” program. Rossiya: Tendentsii i perspektivy razvitiya. Ezhegodnik. 2020;(15–1):17–29. URL: http://inion.ru/site/assets/fles/4994/rossiia_tendentsii_i_perspektivy_razvitiia_2020_15_1.pdf (In Russ.).

20. Antipov V.I., Malinetskii G.G., Mitin N.A. The impact of measures aimed at improving the welfare of the Russian population on macroeconomic dynamics. Preprinty IPM im. M.V. Keldysha = Keldysh Institute Preprints. 2022;(42):1–18. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.20948/prepr-2022–42