Leading Econometric Diagnostics:in Search of New Paradigm
Abstract
The analysis of existing methods of assessing the effectiveness of monetary policy and models for predictive diagnostics of economic growth, which allowed us to reveal their shared methodological and technical disadvantages was carried out in the article. It is shown that the methodological disadvantages include the fact that the complexity of monetary policy and the process of economic growth requires a special procedure for the selection of those monetary indicators, which serve as real drivers of growth, while today these figures randomly collected from available banking statistics. So, the activity of the central monetary institutions is modeled without reliance on modern institutional theory. Technical disadvantages include the use of models quarterly statistics, provoking serious gaps and differences in performance within year, as well as the fact that most existing proactive models use lags of 2-4 months, which allows you to talk about the effect of pre-emption only with a certain degree of conditionality. In the article the need for the development and use of more advanced pre-emptive indicators and models are shown.
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Review
For citations:
Ekimova N.A. Leading Econometric Diagnostics:in Search of New Paradigm. The world of new economy. 2017;(4):40-47. (In Russ.)
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