worldneweconomyМир новой экономикиThe world of new economy2220-64692220-7872Financial University under The Governtment оf The Russian Federation10.26794/2220-6469-2023-17-4-65-78worldneweconomy-413Research ArticleЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ПОЛИТИКАECONOMIC POLICYОценка воздействия бюджетно-налоговой политики на темпы экономического ростаAssessing the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth Rateshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0431-4993СоколовИ. А.SokolovI. A.

Илья Александрович Соколов — кандидат экономических наук, ведущий научный сотрудник, научный сотрудник

Москва

Ilya A. Sokolov — Leader Research Assoc., Research Assoc.

Moscow

sokolov@iep.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2727-6192МатвеевЕ. О.MatveevE. O.

Евгений Олегович Матвеев — младший научный сотрудник, научный сотрудник

Москва

Evgeniy O. Matveev — Junior Research Assoc., Research Assoc.

Moscow

Matveev@iep.ruИнститут экономической политики им. Е. Т. Гайдара ; Финансовый университетРоссияGaidar Institute for Economic Policy ; Financial UniversityRussian FederationФинансовый университет ; Институт экономической политики им. Е. Т. ГайдараРоссияFinancial University ; Gaidar Institute for Economic PolicyRussian Federation2023030220241746578Copyright © Соколов И.А., Матвеев Е.О., 20242024Соколов И.А., Матвеев Е.О.Sokolov I.A., Matveev E.O.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://wne.fa.ru/jour/article/view/413

Актуальность. Согласно Основным направлениям бюджетной, налоговой и таможенно-тарифной политики на 2024 год и на плановый период 2025–2026 годов ожидается значительный рост расходов всех бюджетов бюджетной системы России. При этом существенно меняется структура расходов: ожидается ее смещение в сторону «силовых» расходов на фоне некоторого сокращения вложений в человеческий капитал, социальную политику и развитие национальной экономики. Для обеспечения требуемой законодательством бюджетной сбалансированности прогнозируется и рост налоговой нагрузки в ближайшие три года. В настоящей статье предпринята попытка оценить воздействие этих изменений на динамику ВВП. Методы. Для оценки изменений в бюджетно-налоговой политике были рассчитаны мультипликаторы налогов и бюджетных расходов, в том числе в разрезе ключевых функциональных разделов бюджетной классификации, на основе импульсных откликов структурной VAR модели российской экономики. Модель оценивалась на данных за 2004–2021 гг. Для расчета среднеразмерной модели (10 показателей) был использован байесовский метод оценивания. Результаты. Рассчитанные финансовые мультипликаторы подтверждают наличие значимого эффекта бюджетно-налоговой политики на ВВП, наибольший стимулирующий эффект демонстрируют расходы на социальную политику и национальную экономику.

Relevance. The Guidelines for Budget, Tax and Customs Tariff Policy for 2024 and for the planning period 2025–2026 show that there will be a significant increase in expenditures for all funds of the Russian budget system. The expenses’ structure is changing significantly: it is expected to shift towards power expenses against the backdrop of a slight reduction in investments in human capital, social policy and the national economy growth. To ensure the budgetary balance required by law, the state predicted an increase in the tax burden in the next three years. This paper attempts to assess the impact of these changes on GDP dynamics. The authors calculated multipliers, including in key functional sections of the budget classification, to assess changes in fiscal policy, tax, and budget expenditure. Methods. We based these calculations on the impulse responses of the structural VAR model of the Russian economy. Also, the authors assessed the model on data for 2004–2021 to reckon the average-sized model (10 indicators) involved having used the Bayesian estimation method. Results. The calculated financial multipliers confirm a significant effect of fiscal policy on GDP; expenditures on social policy and the national economy showed the greatest stimulating effect.

финансовый мультипликаторбюджетно-налоговая политикаэффективность бюджетных расходовэкономический ростбюджетная консолидацияfinancial multiplierfiscal policybudget expenditures efficiencyeconomic growthfiscal consolidationСтатья подготовлена по результатам исследований, выполненных за счет бюджетных средств по государственному заданию Финуниверситету.The paper was prepared on the research results carried out at the expense of budgetary funds within the framework of the government research assignment to the Financial University.ReferencesKe-young Chu, Gupta S., Clements B., Hewitt D., Lugaresi S., Schiff J, Schuknecht L., Schwartz G. Unproductive public expenditures: A pragmatic approach to policy analysis. IMF Pamphlet Series. 1995;(48). URL: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/pam/pam48/pam4801.htmKe-young Chu, Gupta S., Clements B., Hewitt D., Lugaresi S., Schiff J, Schuknecht L., Schwartz G. Unproductive public expenditures: A pragmatic approach to policy analysis. 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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.