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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">worldneweconomy</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Мир новой экономики</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>The world of new economy</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2220-6469</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2220-7872</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Financial University under The Governtment оf The Russian Federation</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.26794/2220-6469-2018-12-4-20-31</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">worldneweconomy-205</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ТЕОРИЯ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ECONOMIC THEORY</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Прогнозирование инфляции: практика использования синтетических процедур</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Inflation Forecasting: The Practice of Using Synthetic Procedures</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3371-2229</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Балацкий</surname><given-names>Е. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Balatskiy</surname><given-names>E.  V. </given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>доктор экономических наук, профессор, директор Центра макроэкономических исследований; главный научный сотрудник</p><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of Macroeconomic Regulation Center; Principal Research Scientist</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">evbalatsky@inbox.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2986-4825</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Юревич</surname><given-names>М. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Yurevich</surname><given-names>M. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>младший научный сотрудник Центра макроэкономических исследований</p><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Junior Research Fellow of Macroeconomic Regulation Center</p><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">maksjuve@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Финансовый университет; Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Financial University; Central Economic-Mathematical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Финансовый университет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Financial University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2018</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>03</day><month>06</month><year>2019</year></pub-date><volume>12</volume><issue>4</issue><fpage>20</fpage><lpage>31</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Балацкий Е.В., Юревич М.А., 2019</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2019</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Балацкий Е.В., Юревич М.А.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Balatskiy E.V., Yurevich M.A.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://wne.fa.ru/jour/article/view/205">https://wne.fa.ru/jour/article/view/205</self-uri><abstract><p>В статье представлена общая типология моделей прогнозирования инфляции. Подробно рассмотрены однофакторные модели, включая модели случайного блуждания, прямой авторегрессии, рекурсивной авторегрессии, стохастической волатильности с ненаблюдаемой составляющей и интегрированные модели авторегрессии со скользящей средней. Помимо этого, обсуждаются возможности различных модификаций моделей на основе кривой Филлипса (включая «треугольную модель»), векторных авторегрессионных моделей (включая факторно-расширенную модель векторной авторегрессии Б. Бернанке), динамических моделей общего равновесия и нейронных сетей. Рассмотрены сравнительные преимущества указанных классов моделей, выявлен новый тренд в прогнозировании инфляции, состоящий во внедрении синтетических процедур учета частных прогнозов, полученных на основе разных типов моделей. Сделан важный вывод о превосходстве экспертных оценок по сравнению со всеми имеющимися моделями. Важным аспектом сравнения разных классов моделей является зависимость успешности их применения от таких факторов, как величина лагов для объясняющих регрессоров, величина горизонта планирования, тип экономики моделируемой страны и т. д. Авторами показано, что в условиях большого числа альтернативных способов моделирования инфляции выбор наиболее адекватного подхода в конкретных условиях (например, для российской экономики нынешнего периода времени) представляет собой нетривиальную процедуру. Опираясь на данный вывод, авторы обосновывают тезис, согласно которому большие прогностические возможности заложены в смешанных стратегиях использования разных методических подходов, когда на разных стадиях моделирования применяется разный модельный инструментарий, в частности многофакторная эконометрическая модель и искусственная нейронная сеть.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The article contains a review of inflation forecasting models, including the most popular class of models as one-factor models: random walk, direct autoregression, recursive autoregression, stochastic volatility with an unobserved component and of the integrated model of autoregression with moving average. Also, we discussed the possibilities of various modifications of models based on the Phillips curve (including the “triangle model”), vector autoregressive models (including the factor-extended model of B. Bernanke’s vector autoregression), dynamic general equilibrium models and neural networks. Further, we considered the comparative advantages of these classes of models. In particular, we revealed a new trend in inflation forecasting, which consists of the introduction of synthetic procedures for private forecasts accounting obtained by different models. An important conclusion of the study is the superiority of expert assessments in comparison with all available models. We have shown that in the conditions of a large number of alternative methods of inflation modelling, the choice of the adequate approach in specific conditions (for example, for the Russian economy of the current period) is a non-trivial procedure. Based on this conclusion, the authors substantiate the thesis that large prognostic possibilities are inherent in the mixed strategies of using different methodological approaches, when implementing different modelling tools at different stages of modelling, in particular, the multifactorial econometric model and the artificial neural network.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>инфляция</kwd><kwd>индекс потребительских цен</kwd><kwd>центральный банк</kwd><kwd>динамические модели общего равновесия</kwd><kwd>нейронные сети</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>inflation</kwd><kwd>consumer price index</kwd><kwd>central bank</kwd><kwd>general equilibrium dynamic models</kwd><kwd>neural networks</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Статья подготовлена в рамках Государственного задания Правительства РФ Финансовому университету на 2018 г. (тема «Методика оценки влияния немонетарных факторов на динамику инфляции», шифр АААА-А18–118052490081–5).</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="en">The article was prepared in the framework of the state task of the Government of the Russian Federation to the Financial University for 2018 (topic “Methods of assessing the impact of non-monetary factors on the dynamics of inflation”, code AAA-A18–118052490081–5).</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Lahiri K., Zhao Y. Determinants of consumer sentiment over business cycles: Evidence from the US surveys of consumers. Journal of Business Cycle Research. 2016;12(2):187–215.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Lahiri K., Zhao Y. Determinants of consumer sentiment over business cycles: Evidence from the US surveys of consumers. 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