worldneweconomyМир новой экономикиThe world of new economy2220-64692220-7872Financial University under The Governtment оf The Russian Federation10.26794/2220-6469-2018-12-1-22-35worldneweconomy-159Research ArticleЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ПОЛИТИКАECONOMIC POLICYВлияние качественных изменений структуры экспорта товаров на экономический рост в России в 2014-2016 ггImpact оf Quality Changes in Merchandise Exports on the Russian Economic Growth in 2014-2016БирюковП. А.BiryukovPavel A.ad19910713@yandex.ruНИУ ВШЭРоссияHigher School of EconomicsRussian Federation2018120420181212235Copyright © Бирюков П.А., 20182018Бирюков П.А.Biryukov P.A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://wne.fa.ru/jour/article/view/159

Предмет. Вслед за последними публикациями ведущих российских экономистов автор рассматривает влияние внешних факторов в 2014-2016 гг. на качество структуры российского экспорта товаров и экономический рост России в целом через призму «голландской болезни». Цели. Перед исследованием была поставлена задача - прояснить, улучшается ли качество структуры экспорта и становится ли модель экономического роста России более устойчивой после событий 2014-2016 гг. Методы. К данным, полученным из официальных публичных источников, были применены статистические методы, что позволило применить ряд авторских наработок. Вниманию читателя представлены авторские подходы в области агрегации товарных групп и направлений внешнеторговой деятельности, а также в области оценки градиента привлекательности инвестиций по отраслям. Применение предложенных методик позволяет вывести качественные индикаторы нерентного экспорта и оценить его влияние на характер экономического роста в стране. Результаты. Автор показывает, что без учета некоторых важных проявлений конъюнктуры рентных рынков получаемые оценки могут быть сильно искажены. В результате главным итогом данного исследования является подтверждение гипотезы о том, что события 2014 г. подтолкнули экспорт РФ в сторону улучшения качества его структуры в рамках заданных определений. Отталкиваясь от данных результатов и некоторых других публикаций, автор делает вывод о том, что у экономики РФ появились предпосылки для перехода к качественному экономическому росту. Количественная оценка перехода к новой модели экономического роста потребует дальнейших исследований по теме.

Subject. After the recent papers of leading economists on the Russian economy, the Author examines the influence of external factors of 2014-2016 on the merchandise export structure quality and on the Russian economic growth through the prism of the “Dutch decease” impact. Purpose. The research was focused on clarification whether the export structure quality improves or if the Russian economic growth model is becoming more sustainable after the mentioned events. Methods. The official data were subject to statistical processing in order to use some research methods designed by the author. There are new aggregation schemes for goods and destinations of foreign trade and the estimation of the financial attractiveness gradient of industries for investors. The application of the proposed methods makes it possible to derive qualitative indicators of non-commodity export and to assess its impact on the Russian economic growth. Results. The author shows that the qualitative estimations obtained by mainstream researchers could be greatly distorted without taking into account of some important commodity market features. So, the main result of this study is the initial hypothesis confirmation that the 2014 events pushed Russia’s exports towards improving the quality of its structure within the framework of specified definitions. Based on these results and some other publications, the author concludes that the Russian economy has the prerequisites for a transition to quality economic growth. The quantitative assessment of the transition to a new model of economic growth will require some further research on the topic.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.